Oil Nears $80 in London Amid Falling Stockpiles and Iran Risks

Oil Nears $80 in London Amid Falling Stockpiles and Iran Risks

It will take up to 180 days to allow Iranian oil customers and other companies involved in doing business with Tehran to make plans.

And you'll remember that Andurand Capital Management, a hedge fund manager, recently said on Bloomberg TV that $300 oil wouldn't be impossible.

They earlier touched their highest in more than 3-1/2 years at $79.49 a barrel. But no, it's doing the exact opposite.

Goldman also said the tight market left "room for OPEC to exit (its production cuts) without significant price impact".

OPEC also has a headache in the form of rival supply from outside its club, namely from the United States, which is on course to become the largest producer in the world by the end of this year, with output set to top 11 million bpd.

Dr. Mohamed Ramady is an energy economist and geo political expert on the GCC and former Professor at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia and co-author of "OPEC in a Post shale world - where to next?' His latest book is on 'Saudi Aramco 2030: Post IPO challenges".

But it's not only about supply.

Crude has rallied this month on concern that President Donald Trump's decision to quit an worldwide accord with Iran and reimpose sanctions will strain global supplies just as markets are already tightening.

The IEA said global oil demand would average 99.2-million bpd in 2018, although USA bank Goldman Sachs said consumption would cross 100-million bpd "this summer".

Over the same timeframe, oil supply increased in Africa, Latin America, the Former Soviet Union and Asia Pacific countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

In the month of March, India's oil demand rose by a strong 335 kb/d, contributing to a growth of 360 kb/d in the first quarter. "Because if you reach infrastructure constraints in terms of ability to put additional barrels on the market and you're going to be taking off Iranian barrels - and don't forget Venezuelan production, which has played a huge role in balancing this market - and they (OPEC) could lose a million barrels year-on-year". All you have to do to join our Energy and Capital investment community is sign up for the daily newsletter below. "The price is pretty good and we're not seeing any growth outside the USA", said the investor. Active units there increased by five this week to 463, the most since January 2015.

Up to 1 million b/d of Iranian oil exports could by affected by the USA move with Iran's biggest oil buyers, China and India, expected to continue importing its oil.

However, the cure for higher oil prices tends to be higher oil prices. Past year at this time, a gallon of regular gasoline cost $2.336 on average in the United States.

The US could also penalize American subsidiaries of foreign companies that invest in Iran or purchase its oil.



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