World oil demand seen at 98.6 mbpd in 2018

World oil demand seen at 98.6 mbpd in 2018

"There are good reasons for the price weakness, as US shale oil production is still rising rapidly", said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.

OPEC, Russia, and other producers are keeping 1.8 million barrels a day off the market in a bid to shrink global stockpiles of crude oil.

Oil production outside OPEC nations fell by 175,000 bpd in January to 58.6 million bpd, but was still 1.3 million bpd higher than January last year, predominantly because of the 1.3-million-bpd year-on-year increase in USA output.

Oil demand is set to grow by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2018, the same level as last year, and crude inventories are continuing to dwindle as OPEC and other producers pursue their output cuts until the end of the year, Barkindo said Monday.

Total U.S. liquids production, which includes natural gas liquids, is predicted to rise by 1.7 million bpd in 2018, which is exactly the same as the forecast increase in global liquids consumption.

The bank said factors which pushed oil prices higher, including increased global demand, supply disruptions and United States producer discipline, were less likely to be sustainable.

OPEC's stated goal, through a deal starting a year ago to cut output with Russian Federation and other outside producers, is to reduce oil inventories in developed economies to the five-year average. Oil prices, which fell below $30 a barrel in 2016, have since more than doubled to nearly $70 a barrel.

THE oil market has rebalanced as Brent will reach $82.50 a barrel within six months, Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of financial services said.

Cumulatively, between 2015 and 2017, the world has added around 5 mbpd of demand for oil products on the back of healthy economic conditions globally and a relatively steady product price environment.

"In just three months to November, (U.S.) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia". In particular, this paper highlights the ways in which the magnitude of the oil market's response may be influenced by the size of the study window (that is, the period in which monetary policy may affect prices).

The soaring USA output is undermining efforts led by OPEC and Russian Federation to push up prices with production cuts that started in 2017 and are set to last through 2018.

"By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russian Federation to become the global leader".

It said: "Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the USA to the UAE".

Besides the expected global economic growth of 3.8 per cent this year, demand for transportation fuel would boost the oil market in 2018, they said.

First, sharp drops in United States imports of crude oil eroded the biggest market that producers like Opec had relied on for many years. The cartel now sees non-OPEC production rising by 1.4 million bpd, up by 250,000 bpd from its January report.



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